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Diabetes Prediction Models

Predict high-risk diabetes patients for early intervention, reducing complications and costs.

Problem

Approximately 32 million people in Latin America live with diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes in the region is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating a rise to 64 million by 2025 [1]. There is a recognized need for greater emphasis on preventive medicine to mitigate the impact of diabetes. This includes lifestyle interventions and public health campaigns to reduce the incidence of diabetes and its complications.

Not only that, due to the complexity of this deseases medical treatment is expensive for patients as well for the system. The healthcare systems in Latin America face significant challenges in managing diabetes due to the increasing prevalence and associated economic burdens. If current healthcare models remain unchanged, the financial resources required to address diabetes will continue to grow [4].

Why it matters

  • The number of adults with diabetes has doubled over the past two decades [2].
  • Medical expenses for diabetic patients are 2.3 times higher, and 20% of cases are estimated to be undiagnosed [2,3].
  • Lower socio-economic status is associated with higher diabetes prevalence due to limited access to healthcare services.

Solution

Various machine learning models, including decision trees, support vector machines, and neural networks, have been developed to predict diabetes. These models can achieve high accuracy by learning from historical data and identifying key predictors of diabetes, such as age, BMI, blood pressure, and glucose levels

‍
“DiabetesPredict” is a an algorithm trained to interpret aggregate health data, focusing on the relevant clinical factors. Their assessments guide public health efforts to manage the prevalence of diabetes and mitigate its financial burden on health systems.

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Datasources

The synthetic data set used for the AI model incorporates variables similar to those reported by the CDC in its “National Diabetes Statistics Report, 2020” (1) and considerations for the economic impact of diabetes explored by the American Diabetes Association (2) . The structure and values of the data set are intended to resonate with information on diabetes management and prevention, as discussed by Shrivastava et al. (3) and the role of self-care in diabetes control. The design is also based on studies examining the cost-effectiveness of diabetes interventions (4)(5).

Citations

  1. Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Epidemiological Bolletin, Vol 22, No 2, 2001. https://www3.paho.org/english/dd/ais/EB_v22n2.pdf
  2. American Diabetes Association. “Economic Costs of Diabetes in the U.S. in 2017” Diabetes Care, vol. 41, no. 5, 22 Mar. 2018, pp. 917-928. doi.org/10.2337/dci18-0007.
  3. CDC “Cost-Effectiveness of Diabetes Interventions.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 29 Sep. 2020, https://www.edc.gov/chronicdisease/programs-impact/pop/diabetes.htm. Accessed 12 Feb. 2021.
  4. Arredondo A. Type 2 diabetes and health care costs in Latin America: exploring the need for greater preventive medicine. BMC Med. 2014 Aug 19;12:136. doi: 10.1186/s12916-014-0136-z. PMID: 25266304; PMCID: PMC4243717.
  5. Zhao, Xilin, et al. * Cost-effectiveness of Diabetes Prevention Interventions Targeting High-risk Individuals and Whole Populations: A Systematic Review.” American Diabetes Association: Diabetes Care, vol. 43, no. 7, Jul. 2020, pp. 1593-1616. doi.org/10.2337/dci20-0018.
  6. Shrivastava, Saurabh, et al. “Role of Self-Care in Management of Diabetes Mellitus.” Journal of Diabetes 8 Metabolic Disorders, vol. 12, no. 1, 2013, p. 14, 10.1186/2251-6581-12-14.
  7. Alam, Md Ashraful & Sohel, Amir & Hasan, Kh & Islam, Mohammad. (2024). Machine Learning And Artificial Intelligence in Diabetes Prediction And Management: A Comprehensive Review of Models. Innovatech Engineering Journal. 1. 107-124. 10.70937/jnes.v1i01.41.

Problem

Approximately 32 million people in Latin America live with diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes in the region is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating a rise to 64 million by 2025 [1]. There is a recognized need for greater emphasis on preventive medicine to mitigate the impact of diabetes. This includes lifestyle interventions and public health campaigns to reduce the incidence of diabetes and its complications.

Not only that, due to the complexity of this deseases medical treatment is expensive for patients as well for the system. The healthcare systems in Latin America face significant challenges in managing diabetes due to the increasing prevalence and associated economic burdens. If current healthcare models remain unchanged, the financial resources required to address diabetes will continue to grow [4].

Problem Size

  • The number of adults with diabetes has doubled over the past two decades [2].
  • Medical expenses for diabetic patients are 2.3 times higher, and 20% of cases are estimated to be undiagnosed [2,3].
  • Lower socio-economic status is associated with higher diabetes prevalence due to limited access to healthcare services.

Solution

Various machine learning models, including decision trees, support vector machines, and neural networks, have been developed to predict diabetes. These models can achieve high accuracy by learning from historical data and identifying key predictors of diabetes, such as age, BMI, blood pressure, and glucose levels

‍
“DiabetesPredict” is a an algorithm trained to interpret aggregate health data, focusing on the relevant clinical factors. Their assessments guide public health efforts to manage the prevalence of diabetes and mitigate its financial burden on health systems.

Opportunity Cost

  • More accurate predictions and better healthcare outcomes, since there is an effective management and prevention of diabetes complications.
  • AI algorithms have advanced to personalize diabetes management by accurately predicting blood glucose levels, optimizing insulin dosages, and customizing treatment plans based on individual patient data.
  • Cost savings for healthcare organizations by reducing the need for emergency interventions and hospitalizations.


Impact

The integration of machine learning and AI has revolutionized diabetes care by providing innovative approaches to prediction, monitoring, and personalized management. This integration allows for more accurate and timely interventions, improving patient outcomes [7].


Data Sources

The synthetic data set used for the AI model incorporates variables similar to those reported by the CDC in its “National Diabetes Statistics Report, 2020” (1) and considerations for the economic impact of diabetes explored by the American Diabetes Association (2) . The structure and values of the data set are intended to resonate with information on diabetes management and prevention, as discussed by Shrivastava et al. (3) and the role of self-care in diabetes control. The design is also based on studies examining the cost-effectiveness of diabetes interventions (4)(5).


References

  1. Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Epidemiological Bolletin, Vol 22, No 2, 2001. https://www3.paho.org/english/dd/ais/EB_v22n2.pdf
  2. American Diabetes Association. “Economic Costs of Diabetes in the U.S. in 2017” Diabetes Care, vol. 41, no. 5, 22 Mar. 2018, pp. 917-928. doi.org/10.2337/dci18-0007.
  3. CDC “Cost-Effectiveness of Diabetes Interventions.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 29 Sep. 2020, https://www.edc.gov/chronicdisease/programs-impact/pop/diabetes.htm. Accessed 12 Feb. 2021.
  4. Arredondo A. Type 2 diabetes and health care costs in Latin America: exploring the need for greater preventive medicine. BMC Med. 2014 Aug 19;12:136. doi: 10.1186/s12916-014-0136-z. PMID: 25266304; PMCID: PMC4243717.
  5. Zhao, Xilin, et al. * Cost-effectiveness of Diabetes Prevention Interventions Targeting High-risk Individuals and Whole Populations: A Systematic Review.” American Diabetes Association: Diabetes Care, vol. 43, no. 7, Jul. 2020, pp. 1593-1616. doi.org/10.2337/dci20-0018.
  6. Shrivastava, Saurabh, et al. “Role of Self-Care in Management of Diabetes Mellitus.” Journal of Diabetes 8 Metabolic Disorders, vol. 12, no. 1, 2013, p. 14, 10.1186/2251-6581-12-14.
  7. Alam, Md Ashraful & Sohel, Amir & Hasan, Kh & Islam, Mohammad. (2024). Machine Learning And Artificial Intelligence in Diabetes Prediction And Management: A Comprehensive Review of Models. Innovatech Engineering Journal. 1. 107-124. 10.70937/jnes.v1i01.41.

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